C2K_Rider (OT)

  1. AluminumFrog

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    "The stone age didn't end because the earth ran out of stones, and the oil age won't end because the earth runs out of oil" -- Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, rmi.org

    Your non-sequitur signature line puzzles me.

    At first I thought perhaps something uttered by a rightie but after googling to see who Lovins is gave up on that...

    In any case, seems a bit non-sensical. For one thing, since we haven't run out of stones there is nothing to be said for the relationship between running out of stones and an age ending.

    On the other hand, the amount of oil is finite and sooner or later we will run out of oil easy enough to acquire that there will be inescapable socio-economic consequences.

    I suppose what he is saying is that the oil age will end for reasons not having to do with running out of oil just as the stone age ended for reasons not having to do with running out of stones.

    I find that particular interpretation too hard to believe. Oil is essential for a vast number of products besides fuel to run automobile etc. Seems like pie in the sky to believe society can transform itself to do without it, and especially so to think it could voluntarily happen while there is still oil to be had.

    Sorry, but I just can't draw anything useful from his assertion.

    I'm open as I can be to hear what better message I should take from it :)

    Posted 3 months ago

  2. Keith RIchards

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    Is the amount of oil finite?

    People keep saying that...getting harder to access/extract, yeah. Finite...I dunno about all that.

    It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong.
    Posted 3 months ago

  3. C2K_Rider

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    You have it right. The point being that humans devised new technology that was better than stone-based tools, and in the same way the oil age will end because we'll devise something "better" before we run out of oil (if we ever do. 30 years ago people were claiming we would be out of oil by now). His proposition is that current technology can make oil use largely obsolete. And he definitely believes it needs to be done to stop global warming.

    He is a world renowned expert on energy use and supply. Read his white papers. they are largely free.

    The Rocky Mountain Institute consults with private industry and governments (including the US defense department) on energy use, security issues relating to energy, energy efficiency for buildings, etc.

    His central thesis is that maximum energy efficiency - using currently available technology and engeineering knowledge - and renewables - can completely displace oil, coal and nuclear use. For that he is villified by the US right wingers who want to perpetuate the oil/coal/nuclear culture and subsidy system (for instance, the massive subsidy to oil via the US Military to defend oil fields and transport around the globe).

    He puts his argument to practical use. He consults with car manufacturers on effeminacy and has pioneered carbon fiber-based HyperCars of SUV size that get 100 miles per gallon. He is a huge proponent of hydrogen as a vehicle fuel - and shows they are safer than gasoline-powered cars. He consults on re-design of old buildings, most recently the retrofit of the Empire State Building in NY.

    He is probably the one person most repsonsible for many countries dropping plans fro nuclear plants after showing they would actually damage the economy rather than help it.

    "The stone age didn't end because the earth ran out of stones, and the oil age won't end because the earth runs out of oil" -- Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, rmi.org
    Posted 3 months ago

  4. Orange Crush

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    "the amount of oil is finite"

    Shale gas and shale oil is completely changing the playing field. Projections are the US could be energy self-sufficient by 2030. I bet the traditional oil countries are shitting their pants right now.

    Good or bad? You tell me. Probably both.

    Our future is changed by our habits.

    The wise man said follow me...and he walked behind.
    Posted 3 months ago

  5. C2K_Rider

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    "the amount of oil is finite"

    There is the Total amount of known oil. And then there is the "recoverable reserves." the Recoverable reserves is the oil that is ECONOMICALLY recoverable by current technology. As demand goes up the price goes up, so more of the previously "unrecoverable (uneconomical) reserves" become economical to get. There is a LOT of oil in the ground that has not been economically recoverable so there will always be oil available, it just depends on the price you want to pay for it to make it recoverable reserves!

    Just 10 years ago the Alberta Tar Sands were considered uneconomical and were only developed by a couple companies supported by massive government subsidies. today there are a hundred companies digging the tar sands and making a fortune - even though the energy return is poor.

    The thing is, use usually outstrips known recoverable reserves. And China and India are just getting started on car use. Demand will go up greatly over the next decades. Will we find oil fast enough to meet that demand. If we cannot, and oil prices go way, way up, then other fuels/energy becomes more competitive.

    For instance, right now solar electric supply is competitive with oil and nuclear for peak demand use, which is timed exactly when solar is available.

    Posted 3 months ago

  6. Yo Mike

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    Tar sands are the fool's bargain like corn ethanol. Tar sands saving grace is that is is not also FOOD.

    Posted 3 months ago

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